We've seen one month of FCS football as the calendar turns to October. While there's plenty of season left to play, let's predict the entire 24-team playoff bracket from automatic bids to at-larges.
Before diving into the bracket, I'll explain my process for selecting the predicted field. In this bracket projection, the selected teams are NOT an indication of the FCS playoff selection committee picks, but rather these picks are my opinion, taking into consideration games played data while projecting future play through the regular season.
The predicted bracket follows the format of the FCS playoffs with 24 teams. There are 10 automatic bids this year and 14 at-large bids. Eight of these teams will be seeded and receive a first-round bye. Another eight teams will be seeded 9-16 for the first time this fall.
I seeded all 16 teams after deciding which teams would make the field. I didn't go down to the mile for regionalization of the remaining first-round teams because it's still early in the season and that would be too much work for an October prediction. Similarly, this predicted bracket doesn't avoid matchups featuring conference teams that have played each other either.
Now that that's out of the way, let's get into my 2024 FCS playoff bracket predictions.
Bracket prediction entering October
FCS automatic bids
The Ivy, MEAC and SWAC conference champions don't get automatic bids to the FCS playoffs as their champions don't participate in the postseason tournament. That said, my predictions for the remaining conference title winners are as follows:
- Big Sky - Montana State
- Big South-OVC - Southeast Missouri State
- CAA - William & Mary
- MVFC - South Dakota State
- NEC - Duquesne
- Patriot - Lafayette
- Pioneer - Drake
- SoCon - Mercer
- Southland - McNeese
- UAC - Central Arkansas
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Big Sky
Montana State is the only undefeated Big Sky team after the season's opening month. While the Bobcats aren't completely flawless, they are the most consistent team in the conference. My predicting Montana State to win the Big Sky isn't necessarily me predicting the Bobcats to run the table. However, it is a possibility.
Montana State gets Idaho, Sacramento State and Montana at home, and plays UC Davis on the road after the Aggies visit Montana. Montana State's run game is elite as always, and I think as long as Tommy Mellott stays healthy, the offense will continue to be effective deep into the season.
Big South-OVC
Southeast Missouri State is a top-15 team in the FCS. There's not another team in that conference that looks like a top-40 team in the country.
CAA
It came down to Villanova or William & Mary for the automatic bid from the CAA for me. I think both programs have a legitimate shot at running the table in conference play. However, I think it's more likely Villanova will lose to Delaware to close the season than it is that William & Mary will lose to any of its opponents. William & Mary is the safer pick here.
MVFC
Until someone from the FCS beats South Dakota State, I'm not picking against the Jackrabbits.
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NEC
The NEC will be decided the last week of the regular season when Duquesne visits Central Connecticut State. Duquesne already has a road win over a then-ranked Youngstown State team. I'm rocking with the Dukes to win the conference.
Patriot
Lafayette lost to Columbia but I think that's just a sign of a weaker Patriot League than in recent years. That's shown by every team in the conference already having two losses in nonconference play. I still think Lafayette is the best team in the group.
Pioneer
Drake beat Eastern Washington, a team that I would pick to win the PFL if it played in it. Drake also picked up a win over San Diego already this season. Lastly, Drake gets Butler at home and doesn't play Davidson or Dayton. Drake is my pick here.
SoCon
Mercer has the best defense in the FCS after one month and the SoCon looks like only a two-team league this year. I don't think anyone can hang with the Bears.
Southland
You didn't think I'd go chalk for all of my conference picks, did you? All aboard the McNeese hype train. The Cowboys are off to a 4-2 start, showing a penchant for playing in close games. Quarterback Clifton McDowell is rolling and I like the momentum down in Lake Charles. With a win over Stephen F. Austin already behind it, McNeese's biggest threat is UIW. The Cowboys get UIW after a bye week, and I think a well-rested Cowboys squad will pull off the upset.
UAC
The race for the shared automatic bid in the ASUN-WAC (informally recognized as the United Athletic Conference or UAC) is Central Arkansas' to lose. The Bears have the top offensive and defensive players in the FCS in running back ShunDerrick Powell and edge defender David Walker.
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Projected FCS at-large bids
- North Dakota State
- South Dakota
- North Dakota
- Southern Illinois
- Montana
- UC Davis
- Idaho
- Sacramento State
- Villanova
- Rhode Island
- Stony Brook
- Tarleton State
- UIW
- Chattanooga
Big Sky at-larges
Montana, UC Davis and Idaho should all make the playoffs out of the Big Sky. If we hypothetically say none of these schools can knock off Montana State, I still think they all make it. When it comes to other difficult games, Montana only plays UC Davis, UC Davis only plays Sacramento State, and Idaho doesn't play any other ranked teams.
Sacramento State's loss to NAU weakens its playoff résumé, but I think even if it ends the season 7-5, it'll still make the postseason thanks to a dominant win over a then-ranked Nicholls.
CAA at-larges
I already spoke on Villanova in the conference championship section, but I see the CAA getting five total at-larges this fall. Rhode Island's schedule isn't too difficult behind road trips to New Hampshire and Delaware. I think the addition of Malik Grant will get URI the win over UNH, which has the 13th-worst run defense in the conference. Rhode Island is a team that should finish with no more than two FCS losses at most.
Stony Brook has surprised me after finishing winless last year. The Seawolves are currently undefeated against the FCS. While I think it loses to Villanova and William & Mary, Stony Brook is playing to a standard that should have it the favorite against every other FCS team on its schedule beyond New Hampshire.
I think the Nov. 16 battle between Stony Brook and New Hampshire will decide the final at-large of the CAA. I'll again point to New Hampshire's porous run defense in comparison to Stony Brook's run offense which averages almost 200 yards a game. The ground game will carry Stony Brook to its first playoff appearance since 2018.
MVFC at-larges
To start, North Dakota can lose three FCS games and still get in the playoffs thanks to its win over Montana. North Dakota State and South Dakota look too good to envision any of the two losing more than two FCS games.
I think injuries will finally catch up to Illinois State, and I have the Redbirds losing on the road to Southern Illinois. I think ISU also loses to North Dakota to close the season, ending the season with at least three FCS losses. I project Southern Illinois to have four FCS losses by season's end, but with wins over UIW and Illinois State, it'll get one of the final playoff spots over the Redbirds.
Northern Iowa is about to play South Dakota State, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri State, North Dakota State and Illinois State in consecutive weeks. I currently haven't seen anything to think the Panthers can pull off more than two wins (generously) in that stretch. UNI is out and not on the bubble unless it surprises me.
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Other at-larges
I have Chattanooga beating ETSU this weekend. If the Mocs do that, I think they should win the rest of their games in the SoCon with a loss to Mercer behind them. With two FCS losses, they'll get in the playoffs.
Tarleton State might be undefeated against the FCS entering its regular-season finale against Central Arkansas. I don't think the Texans win that game, but I do think their home-field advantage allows them to beat Eastern Kentucky and Abilene Christian. Throw in a win over a McNeese team I'm high on, and you have a recipe for a home playoff game.
UIW is my last team in right now. Without a conference title, UIW doesn't have a marquee win to boost its playoff resume. However, its win over Northern Arizona looks like it could be the best nonconference win of any of the bubble teams after NAU landed an upset last week. I think UIW's resume will be strong enough for an at-large with three FCS losses.
Conferences with multiple teams in the projected bracket
| No. of projected Playoff Teams | Conference |
|---|---|
| 5 | MVFC, Big Sky |
| 4 | CAA |
| 2 | SoCon, Southland, UAC |
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First teams out
Illinois State
- As stated before, I have Illinois State finishing with at least three FCS losses and I think it's more likely that number is four than three. At 7-5 without a standout nonconference win, the Redbirds miss out.
Abilene Christian
- I don't have Abilene Christian beating Tarleton State or Central Arkansas. That means the Wildcats will finish with three FCS losses. ACU's best win would then be Eastern Kentucky or Northern Colorado and that won't move the needle.
Northern Arizona
- NAU looked excellent in its win over Sacramento State, but it has road trips to Idaho and Montana to start October. I think the Lumberjacks will be 3-4 after that, and then it'll need to lose no more than one game in order to have a chance at the postseason. However, even if it goes undefeated in that stretch, it still would be behind UIW on the FCS bubble because of a head-to-head loss.
ETSU
- ETSU is building a winning culture under Tre Lamb. However, I don't have the Buccaneers defeating Chattanooga or Mercer, leaving them with three FCS losses. I don't think a win over Elon will be enough to push them into the playoffs since they also have a non-FCS win over UVA-Wise.
Richmond
- Richmond should run through the remainder of its CAA slate with ease outside of Delaware or William & Mary, but a loss to Wofford hurts its playoff resume. The Spiders will be one of the first teams out with three FCS losses.
UT Martin
- UT Martin needs to run the table for any shot at an at-large bid. Is it capable of the feat? Yes, especially after an FBS win. Do I think it'll happen? No, I don't. That's a lot to ask of the Skyhawks to be perfect over the season's final two months.
Can an HBCU make the playoffs this year as at-larges?
After two HBCUs have earned at-large bids to the FCS playoffs in the last three years, could another HBCU earn a spot in 2024?
I doubt it. Florida A&M has the best shot this year and the Rattlers can't play in the playoffs with a make-up game against Alabama A&M during the first round. All HBCUs outside of Florida A&M have poor nonconference losses and/or won't have a solid strength of schedule to make the postseason.
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Top eight seeds
1. South Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. North Dakota State
4. William & Mary
5. Central Arkansas
6. Mercer
7. Villanova
8. Idaho
If both South Dakota State and Montana State run the table for the rest of the season, I think South Dakota State will get the 1-seed. Part of it is because the Jackrabbits are the two-time defending champions and I think they'll get the benefit of the doubt. The other part of it is that SDSU will have played a potential nonconference playoff team in UIW, two top-five teams in NDSU and South Dakota, a likely playoff-bound North Dakota, and a potential bubble team in Southern Illinois. Meanwhile, Montana State's nonconference FCS schedule was weak, and the Bobcats will only play four playoff teams. Even with Montana State's FBS win, it'll all come down to strength of schedule for the one seed.
I only have North Dakota State losing to South Dakota State, so it gets the No. 3 seed. With William & Mary as the top team out of the CAA, it'll get the No. 4 seed.
The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds go to Central Arkansas and Mercer after not losing to FCS competition. Central Arkansas gets the higher seed over Mercer in this scenario because it will have better wins.
I only have Idaho losing to Montana State in the remainder of the season. With two FCS losses, Idaho falls behind Villanova but gets a top-eight seed thanks to its FBS win.
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Remaining seeds
For the first time, the FCS playoff committee will seed 16 teams, meaning first-round games will be played at higher seeds. Here's who I have rounding out the top 16:
9. Southeast Missouri State
10. North Dakota
11. Montana
12. South Dakota
13. Tarleton State
14. McNeese
15. UC Davis
16. Duquesne
Southeast Missouri State comes in behind Central Arkansas and Mercer if all three go undefeated against FCS competition because it plays in the weaker conference of the three.
I'll give the home-field advantage to North Dakota in its head-to-head meeting with South Dakota. The Fighting Hawks also have a head-to-head win over Montana so it'll be the No. 10 seed while the Grizzlies follow behind. Montana gets the No. 11 seed after only losing to Montana State in the remainder of the season since it'll have fewer FCS losses than South Dakota. Both the Grizzlies and the Coyotes get a seed over Tarleton State because they'll have more ranked wins.
McNeese's close loss to Tarleton State and Southland conference title gets it the No. 14 spot with UC Davis getting a seed before any other team remaining thanks to its win over Idaho and projected season-ending win over Sacramento State.
Rounding out the final seeds, I have Duquesne getting No. 16 over Villanova. The Dukes have a win over Youngstown State that the Rams can't match.
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Here's a look at the bracket one more time: